Here is my post following the very first primary. The date was January 2,008, the day after the Iowa caucuses. The post was titled, "The political ramifications of Iowa." Here are the relevant sections:
1. His success in Iowa propels Obama into the Democratic nomination. For one thing, a third place finish in Iowa takes away Hillary's air of inevitability, and once Obama gets the upper hand, it's over. For one thing, Edwards will have to drop out of the race fairly quickly (because of money), and the majority of his support will go to Obama. Iowa gives Obama, who already has a large base of support (and lots of money), momentum and excitement, and takes it away from Hillary. Also, Obama got the "change" vote--and will continue to get it. Not only that, but Obama has an attractive personality and low negatives--the opposite of Hillary. Oh, and his victory speech was awesome--and Hillary's concession speech was not.That is, of course, exactly what happened. Then there was this:
4. If Obama wins the Democratic nomination, he wins the general election. Obama has a Kennedyesque air to him: he's young, articulate, and sophisticated. Oh, and America is ready for a Black president.Got that right too. In fact, I think everything in that post proved out, although my predictions about the Republicans were less specific. I love it when that happens.
I am now accepting offers for political consulting. But my fees just went up.