Despite just declaring his candidacy and not yet spending any money, Rand Paul turned in a respectable 26 percent support in the U. S. Senate race against 37 percent for the candidate who, so far, is an ideological tabula rasa, Trey Grayson.
I have it on good authority that Paul is conservative on social issues, although he hasn't said much on them publicly yet. And Grayson is squishy on gambling. If Paul runs to the social right of Grayson, he can get the church vote out, a not unimportant thing in a Republican election in Kentucky.
Prediction: If Paul can at least match Grayson on his social conservatism, and runs a good money bomb or two, the race will be neck and neck by election by the end of the year.