Thursday, January 03, 2008

The Political Ramifications of Iowa

Here are what I think are the political ramifications of Iowa:

1. His success in Iowa propels Obama into the Democratic nomination. For one thing, a third place finish in Iowa takes away Hillary's air of inevitability, and once Obama gets the upper hand, it's over. For one thing, Edwards will have to drop out of the race fairly quickly (because of money), and the majority of his support will go to Obama. Iowa gives Obama, who already has a large base of support (and lots of money), momentum and excitement, and takes it away from Hillary. Also, Obama got the "change" vote--and will continue to get it. Not only that, but Obama has an attractive personality and low negatives--the opposite of Hillary. Oh, and his victory speech was awesome--and Hillary's concession speech was not.

2. Huckabee's victory in Iowa does not guarantee him the Republican nomination, but the victory puts him even with Romney, Guiliani, McCain, and maybe Thompson. Wins in South Carolina and Michigan could put him over the top. It was not only that Huck won, but it was the margin of victory, which exceeded expectations. Exceeding expectations is everything in politics and both Huckabee and Obama did it. In addition, Huckabee's victory speech, seen by many people across the nation was believable, exciting, and real (it appeared to be done without teleprompters). It showed the nation the excitement within the Huckabee campaign, and that is contagious.

3. The Democratic nomination will be settled before the Republican nomination. The Democratic nomination is essentially a two way race between Hillary and Obama, and the sooner Edwards drops out the sooner Obama will have it locked up. The Republican nomination is a four, or perhaps five-way race, and will go on until Super Tuesday.

4. If Obama wins the Democratic nomination, he wins the general election. Obama has a Kennedyesque air to him: he's young, articulate, and sophisticated. Oh, and America is ready for a Black president.

5. The Thompson campaign is alive as long as there is no clear Republican leader. Which could be a while.

6. The high turnout in Iowa will continue in other states. It is a function of the fact that the nominations are really up for grabs.

7. Ron Paul won't win any primaries, but he'll surprise people, possibly in New Hampshire, and help keep the nomination open longer.

9 comments:

David Charlton said...

Any comparisons to Fred Thompson are not favorable to anyone. Thompson is the "invisible" candidate, having waited far to long to get in the race and then acting as though he isn't really interested in running. Thompson has no chance.
Edwards should not drop out, as he is, I believe, the strongest candidate among the Democrats. He has the experience, not as many negatives as Hillary, and he is addressing important questions about poverty in American (as well as plenty of other questions).
What none of the Democratic candidates have done convincingly, is to articulate a clear plan for getting us out of Iraq. They are long on promises, short on details, and as we should note now that they are in control of Congress, they are complicit in keeping us in that mess.

David Charlton said...

That should be "far too long" in the third line.

Truly said...

Why will Huckabee most certainly win the nomination? two words: Chuck Norris LOL. Martin you have to watch this ad on youtube; it is absolutely histerical. www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjYv2YW6azE
Seriously though I don't think Thompson can pull it off. He came far too late:(.Convince me otherwise please.

a high school junior

Hannah J said...

I found that ad funny too. David, the main thing I find wrong with Edwards is exemplified by his two minutes on YouTube primping his hair (need I say more?).

Kristina said...

I keep hearing people saying that they like Fred Thompson, but they don't think he has a chance so they're going to vote for "So&so".

Yeah, if that's everyone's attitude, he doesn't have a chance.

barb michelen said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Truly said...

Martin,
I'm still waiting for your response concerning my comment. Should I consider your silence as affirmation of my ideas

Martin Cothran said...

Truly,

You may be right about Thompson. We'll see how things go. I think the Republican nomination is still very much up in the air right now. I think, however, that, as I said, Obama is on his way to the Democratic nomination.

Stevo said...

I agree that Obama will win the general election. I don't see how there could possibly be enough supporters of Clinton (for several reasons) and I also think that most people are tired of republican "conservatives". Obama may not be the most qualified candidate, but he has the least going against him otherwise.

In truth, I don't like any of the candidates a whole lot; I may just vote for Ron Paul because he won't be elected anyway.